		Stocks
		Options
		Futures


			Home \| Disclaimer \| Results \| Rules \| Subscribe \| Contact \| Newsletter \| Trading Room Login \| FREE Stuff

Past Market Forecasts

I'm usually right

Trade Signals

Past Performance

Free Lessons

Learn the OSS Indicators

Dominate Cycles

Trading

Profits

Mercury Retrograde and the Stock Market


	Mercury Retrograde From the most ancient times, the astrological beliefs have played an important role in human history, thinking, world-views, language and other elements of social culture. The practice of relating the movement of celestial bodies to events in financial markets is relatively newer but despite the inconsistency between financial astrology and standard economic or financial theory, it seems to be largely spread among capital market traders. This paper evaluates one of the astrological effects on the capital market, more precisely the Mercury retrograde effect on US capital market. Despite the fact that it is just an optical illusion the astrological tradition says that Mercury retrograde periods are characterized by confusion and miscommunications. The trades could be less effective, the individuals more prone to make mistakes so there is a long-held belief that it is better to avoid set plans during Mercury retrograde, signing contracts, starting new ventures or open new stock market positions. The main findings of this study are lower return’s volatilities in the Mercury retrograde periods, inconsistent with the astrologic theories assumptions but consistent with the idea that trader’s beliefs in Mercury retrograde effect could change the market volatility exactly in the opposite sense than the predicted one. Source: https://ideas.repec.org/a/wun/timjeb/tjebv09y2016i01a04.html Motivated by the astrological belief that investors better off staying away from the market during the Mercury Retrograde period, this paper hypothesizes that market returns are lower during the Mercury Retrograde period than during the remainder of the year. Source: https://www.acem.sjtu.edu.cn/sffs/2021s/pdf/paper5.pdf There is some evidence to suggest that planetary retrogrades can have a negative impact on the stock market. For example, a study by the University of California, Berkeley found that the stock market tends to underperform during Mercury retrogrades. The study found that the S&P 500 index lost an average of 1.5% during Mercury retrogrades, compared to an average gain of 0.7% during other periods. Source: https://brameshtechanalysis.com/2023/05/13/planetary-retrogrades-do-they-really-affect-the-stock-market/

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT TRADING RESULTS.

Futures trading is complex and carries the risk of substantial losses. It is not suitable for all investors. The ability to withstand losses and to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can adversely affect investor returns.