Stocks          
   Options
   Futures
 
   
     
Home | Disclaimer | Results | Rules | Subscribe | Contact | Newsletter | Trading Room Login | FREE Stuff     
 

Past Market Predictions

I'm usually right

Trade Signals

Past Performance

Bitcoin

2018 Forecast

Psychic

Experiments

Results

EXPERIMENTS

 
Psychic Experiment

OSS PSYCHIC EXPERIMENT -- RESULTS


Do Average People Have Psychic Abilities?

 

DESIGN

From May to Aug of 2018, I conducted a small experiment to determine if a group of average people had any psychic skills. The results of the experiment suggests they do.

The experiment consisted of questions I created that could be answered with a True or False response.

To force participants to rely on their psychic abilities, they did not know what the questions were, and were presented with two colors to choose from, not knowing which color represented True or False.

Here is a question that was sent to the participants.

---------------------------------
Question: #19
Question ID: 2xLhHnLoZmcM
Deadline: 7/5/18 6PM EST
Choose a Color: Black or Yellow
Please respond by the Deadline.
---------------------------------

The actual question was: US 500 Futures (S&P 500) will close lower on Friday, July 6th, 2018

The colors were randomly assigned the values of True or False.  In this case Black was True, and Yellow was False.

The day before the target date (July 6th, 2018), I would tally up the participants responses, and send them the scores and the question they were responding to.

---------------------------------
Question #: 19 
Question ID: 2xLhHnLoZmcM 
Question: US 500 Futures (S&P 500) will close lower on Friday, July 6th, 2018
Response Choices: Black (TRUE)  /  Yellow  (FALSE) 
 
Group response that the statement is TRUE: 55% 
 
Static Indicator:  1
---------------------------------


INDIVIDUAL SCORES

Individual scores for each participant were also tracked.

2 participants had been right over 70% of the time, while another 4 participants had successful outcomes above 60% and less than 70%. 5 participants had scores below 40%, and 1 participant had a score of 35%.

Special attention was paid to the participants with scores under 45%.  Near the end of the experiment, I was publishing the Group score, the score of those who were most succesful (scores over 60%) and the scores for those with the lowest scores. In the case of the lowest scores, their choice of color was flipped seeing they were usually wrong.

 

STATIC INDICATOR

Half way through the experiment, I introduced the Statis Indicator. On one particular question, the Group and the Leaders were wrong in a big way. Having read about space weather affecting humans in a number of ways, and personally checking the space weather dashboard daily, I thought it might have an affect on one's psychic abilities. NOAA'a Space Weather Prediction Center tracks a number of space weather variables. I downloaded their "30 days of Solar Data" which can be found here: ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/latest/DSD.txt

References to Space Weather and its affect on humans can be found at the bottom of this page.

Applying the Solar Data to previous questions ask during the experiment, one could eye-ball more misses by the Group when there was greater activity/disturpences in one or more of the variables on the days participants were pondering the question they were sent.

By the end of the 30 question experiment, 7 misses and 2 hits occurred when one of more of the space weather variables show unusual activity.

I chose the word Static for this indicator as you would refer to static on a radio which makes the signal more difficult to tune into.

 

COLORS

A number of participants raise the question as to the use of colors to represent True and False.  Colors no doubt do have an emotional impact for some people. Dispite the possibility that this emotional response to colors might have skewed the participants scores, I stuck with colors through the original 30 questions. The experiment is now being repeated with another 30 questions, but in place of colors, I am using randomly selected letters. Question #41 was sent out today, Aug 11 2018. The question contains the line "Choose a Letter: W or P." We'll see if scores increase.

 

SCORES

The group ended the experiment with a score of 66%. If questions affect by space weather were removed, the success rate for the group was 82.60%

I have not taken the time to calculate how individual scores were impacted by the ommission of questions asked when a disturpance in space weather was present, but will do if time permits.

Individual scores are published from time to time so each participant can see how they are doing.

 

PARTICIPANTS

Participants were recruited from one of the serviceS offered by the OSS TRADERS website at http://oss.cc. 25 participants volenteered. 3 participants were dropped when they stopped responding after the first few questions.

 

FOLLOW ALONG

If you wish to follow along, results are being posted in both the free nightly newsletter ( http://oss.cc/oss_FreeServices.asp ) and the subscription based OSS NIGHTLY INDICATORS newsletter ( http://oss.cc/oss_Subscription.asp ).

 

TRADING

With the paricipants being right more often than wrong, I started posting trade recommendation using binary options at Nadex.com through the OPTION SIGNAL SERVICE at http://oss.cc/oss_Subscription.asp#OptionSignalService.  WARNING! If the Group response is right, you could still lose the trade. Options are available at different strike price. Let's say yesterday's close was 2825 for the S&P 500.  The Group says the Close will be higher the next day. The next strike price for an option might be 2828. If the Close on the predicted date is 2826, the Groups was right, but the closing price was below your 2828 option. You lose 100%. I will try to word the questions alittle different such as "Gold futures will finish at least 5 points lower on Monday."


REFERENCES: SPACE WEATHER AND HUMANS

Space Weather Effects on Health

space weather its effect on human health behaviour

Geomagnetic Storms and their Influence on the Human Brain

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/bce2/ebf28b3de32b0a94faf4a70ba7e972cafcb1.pdf


OSS PSYCHIC EXPERIMENT UPDATE -- NOV 24,2018

New Design

Starting with Question #76, a Test statement has been added to each question.

The Test statement references an event in the past or a known fact.

Some sample Test Statements:

 

Humans can smell better than dogs
Vladimir Putin is the President of Venezuela
Christmas is in the month of December
February has the fewest days of any calendar month
A red traffic light means stop

 

Here is a sample email that is sent to Participants:

 

Question: #80

Question ID: b3fCZVx6SRP

Deadline: 10/24/2018

Target Date: 10/26/2018

There are two statement. One concerns an event that happened in the past, the other concerns a future event.

Statement #1: True or False?

Statement #2: True or False?

0 = False 1 = True

Your reply must be one of the following: 00, 01, 10, 11

Please respond by the Deadline.

--Rob

 

Statement #1 is the Test Statement, and Statement #2 is the Future Statement.

 

Sample Future Statements:

 
The S&P futures will close higher than the previous Close
Gold futures will finish higher than the previous close
Crude futures will close lower than the previous Close
The S&P futures will close higher than the previous Close

 

Participants must guess if the Statements are True or False without know what the statements are.

 

As with the previous format (i.e. no Test Statement), participants continue to beat the odds, and do better at predicting the outcome of the Future Statement when the are no disturbances in Space Weather.

 

Additionally, a small group of Participants are scoring higher than the group as a whole.

 

Another interesting observation is the scores for the Test Statements are consistently higher than the Future Statements.

 

Until now, participants knew that Statement #1 was the Test Statement, and Statement #2 was the Future Statement. Going forward, the Statements will be randomly assigned, So Statement #1 will sometimes be the Future Statement, and sometimes the Test Statement. 

 

 

 

If you would like to participate, click the CONTACT link in the menu above.
Enter the word "EXPERIMENT" in the Subject line, and your first name in the body of the email.

 
 
 Copyright 2002 - 2018, Handler & Associates, Inc.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT TRADING RESULTS.

Futures trading is complex and carries the risk of substantial losses. It is not suitable for all investors. The ability to withstand losses and to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can adversely affect investor returns.